Latest Research
Simultaneous estimation of the effective reproduction number and the time series of daily infections: Application to Covid-19
In this paper, we present new statistical methods for a popular model which defines the effective reproduction number based on self-exciting dynamics of new infections.
Methodology Applications
Anytime-Valid Inference in Adaptive Experiments: Covariate Adjustment and Balanced Power
Adaptive experiments have become central to modern experimental design, enabling researchers to efficiently identify optimal treatments, improve statistical power, and maximize respondent welfare.
Methodology Econometrics Computation
Causal Inference for Latent Outcomes Learned with Factor Models
In many fields$\unicode{x2013}$including genomics, epidemiology, natural language processing, social and behavioral sciences, and economics$\unicode{x2013}$it is increasingly important to address causal questions in the context of factor models or representation learning.
Methodology
Adaptive Supergeo Design: A Scalable Framework for Geographic Marketing Experiments
Geographic experiments are a gold-standard for measuring incremental return on ad spend (iROAS) at scale, yet their design is challenging: the unit count is small, heterogeneity is large, and the optimal Supergeo partitioning problem is NP-hard.
Applications
hdbayes: An R Package for Bayesian Analysis of Generalized Linear Models Using Historical Data
There has been increased interest in the use of historical data to formulate informative priors in regression models.
Methodology Computation
Bayesian integrative factor analysis methods, with application in nutrition and genomics data
This tutorial is designed to guide applied researchers through the landscape of Bayesian integrative factor analysis, offering insights and tools for extracting interpretable, robust patterns from complex multi-source data.
Applications
Dynamic guessing for Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with embedded numerical root-finding
Modern implementations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and related MCMC algorithms support sampling of probability functions that embed numerical root-finding algorithms, thereby allowing fitting of statistical models involving analytically intractable algebraic constraints.
Computation
Penalised spline estimation of covariate-specific time-dependent ROC curves
Recognising the need to account for patient heterogeneity when evaluating the accuracy of a prognostic biomarker, we introduce a novel penalised-based estimator of the time-dependent ROC curve that accommodates a possible modifying effect of covariates.
Methodology Computation
On Devon Allen's Disqualification at the 2022 World Track and Field Championships
Devon Allen's disqualification at the men's 110-meter hurdle final at the 2022 World Track and Field Championships, due to a reaction time (RT) of 0. 099 seconds-just 0. 001 seconds below the allowable threshold-sparked widespread debate over the fairness and validity of RT rules.
Applications
Educational Intervention Re-Wires Social Interactions in Isolated Village Networks
In aggregate, the imposition of a novel health information regime in rural villages (as a kind of social institution) led to a significant rewiring in individuals particular connections, but it still had a limited effect on the overall global structure of the village-wide social networks.
Applications Physics and Society
