Using mobility data in the design of optimal lockdown strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic in England

29 Jun 2020  ·  Ritabrata Dutta, Susana Gomes, Dante Kalise, Lorenzo Pacchiardi ·

A mathematical model for the COVID-19 pandemic spread in England is presented. The model integrates age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed dynamics with real mobile phone data accounting for the population mobility. The dynamical model adjustment is performed via Approximate Bayesian Computation. Optimal lockdown and exit strategies are determined based on nonlinear model predictive control, constrained to public-health and socio-economic factors. Through an extensive computational validation of the methodology, it is shown that it is possible to compute robust exit strategies with realistic reduced mobility values to inform public policy making.

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