Modeling the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Population in Australia: A Probabilistic Analysis

26 May 2020  ·  Eshragh Ali, Alizamir Saed, Howley Peter, Stojanovski Elizabeth ·

The novel Corona Virus COVID-19 arrived on Australian shores around 25 January 2020. This paper presents a novel method of dynamically modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia with a high degree of accuracy and in a timely manner using limited data; a valuable resource that can be used to guide government decision-making on societal restrictions on a daily and/or weekly basis. The "partially-observable stochastic process" used in this study predicts not only the future actual values with extremely low error, but also the percentage of unobserved COVID-19 cases in the population. The model can further assist policy makers to assess the effectiveness of several possible alternative scenarios in their decision-making processes.

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Applications Physics and Society Populations and Evolution


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